Observability and evaluation
Telemetry notices the failure but loses the cause
TelemetrySuffBench separates three questions: did a failure occur, at which
step did its cause arise, and should the system abstain when evidence is
insufficient?
On synthetic agent traces, five frontier models given full telemetry identified
the originating step with accuracy ranging from 33.8% to 97.2%. When the same
traces were presented through metadata-, OpenTelemetry-, and OpenInference-like
views, failure detection remained nearly perfect at 99.5–100% F1, while cause
localization collapsed to at most 0.5%. Removing decision content reduced it to
zero for every model.
This is not a measurement of production OpenTelemetry: the benchmark is
synthetic, and the format names describe representations chosen by the authors.
But it captures a real defect in our dashboards. A failed status and the last
error answer "whom should we wake?" They say almost nothing about which earlier
decision produced the later failure.
Agent observability needs more than tool logs; it needs provenance: which
inference led to the next action, where the data came from, and which policy
version allowed the transition. Without those links, an expensive diagnostic
model sees a neatly formatted loss of information.
Source: TelemetrySuffBench.
Replay evaluates a trajectory that no longer exists after a model swap
The usual way to test a model router sounds reasonable: take a recorded agent
trajectory, replace a cheap model's response with a stronger model's answer,
and see whether the outcome improves. The Replay Gap tests that assumption.
The author forked live mini-SWE-agent trajectories at controlled points,
restored the environment, and continued with another model. In 74–77% of early
swaps, the very next action diverged from the original. All five observed
outcome flips occurred in swap arms; none appeared in 359 same-model control
forks. Static log stitching incorrectly predicted all five cases in which
success could change.
The study is narrow: one scaffold, two small Qwen models, and only five outcome
flips. Yet it demonstrates a causal error, not a statistical nuance. A new
answer changes the next tool call, that call changes repository state, and the
old trajectory ceases to be a counterfactual.
A neighboring preprint on routing adds a second warning. Across four standard
benchmarks, the theoretical oracle gap was large, but the best prompt router
recovered only 7.5–14.4% of it. After correcting for selection among 11
policies, the data did not establish an advantage over the best fixed model at
all. The experiment used 0.5–7B models rather than frontier agents, so the
discipline of the conclusion matters more than its magnitude.
A router must be evaluated through a live fork, and its victory tested after
selection. Otherwise an attractive gain is manufactured twice: first by a
replay that never existed, then by choosing the best configuration on the same
data.
Sources: The Replay Gap,
selection-valid routing diagnostics.